Not out of the woods yet is probably an understatement, but it may not prove to be all bad news. In the same way that the UK has benefitted from some global recovery and a false sense of security because personal spending (and debt) is up (and you thought Osborne had something to do with the recovery?), the stronger EU countries could see their burden easing and that will help to drag the weaker economies out of the gloom.
The entire situation is not helped by both politicians and journalists looking for single causes - it is the fault of the Euro, it is the fault of the Central Bank, it is the fault of Greece - when in reality what has happened is there has been a business trading stagnation and fall meaning that the national balance book has gone into meltdown.
Modern economies need debt. We are living in a growth-orientated system where a country is seen as failing if it is not showing continuous growth (even if all its citizens are as happy as anything). But growth can only be sustained by business and that means sales to the consumer. Modern growth is based on two product types - unnecessary luxuries and personal IT. Both of those are bought, mostly, on credit, often credit cards with high interest rates and rip off insurance systems. It is easy to see that a western country that is already saturated with necessary goods goes into growth because it's citizens go into debt. That is how it used to happen and it is how it is happening again.
So, as long as EU citizens are happy racking up great big credit card bills, the EU economy will probably survive another year.
Next: Sinking Feeling »
- Alex Salmond and the English Vote
- Farage and the End of the World
- Miliband and Scotland
- EU Economy
- Sinking Feeling
- More from Islamic State
- And Finally...